Research Shows Plane Turbulence To Increase | Stuff.co.nz

University of Reading

Climate change doubles risk of turbulence to aircraft.

New research has found global warming is likely to double the chances of plane turbulence in the coming decades.

According to a study from the University of Reading and the University of East Anglia, atmospheric changes could lead to the amount of turbulent air patterns that affect planes doubling, and for the intensity to get stronger by the middle of this century.

Dr Paul Williams, who headed the research, said global warming would have a significant impact on the aviation industry.

"Air turbulence does more than just interrupt the service of in-flight drinks. It injures hundreds of passengers and aircrew every year - sometimes fatally.

"It also causes delays and damages planes. The total cost to society is about US$150 million (NZ$177 million) each year."

Researchers used supercomputer simulations to analyse jet streams over the North Atlantic Ocean.

Dr Manoj Joshi, from East Anglia, said they focused on looking at turbulence in its peak periods.

"Our research focused on clear-air turbulence in winter. This is especially problematic to airliners, because clear-air turbulence is invisible to pilots and satellites, and winter is when it peaks."

It found the chances of encountering significant turbulence would increase by between 40 per cent and 170 per cent, but most likely double, and the intensity by anywhere between 10 and 40 per cent.

Williams said any increase in turbulence would make flying more uncomfortable and increase the risk to passengers and crew.

He said airlines would also be forced to re-rout some flights to avoid stronger patches of turbulence, which would lead to greater fuel consumption and emissions of atmospheric pollutants, make delays at airports more common, and ultimately push up ticket prices.

The research showed the atmosphere was becoming more vulnerable and unstable, and Williams said the aviation industry was partly to blame for that.

- ? Fairfax NZ News

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Source: http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/8526319/Plane-rides-to-get-bumpier

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